Condo-dominant neighborhoods are down 5–7% year over year. Single-family neighborhoods are flat to positive. The citywide average of −1.6% describes neither market.
Seattle's condo market and its single-family market are moving in opposite directions. Condo-dominant neighborhoods are down 5–7% year over year. Single-family neighborhoods are flat to positive. The citywide figure of −1.6% is an average of two divergent markets and describes neither.
The practical consequence: the "Seattle is a buyer's market" headline is accurate for condos and largely inaccurate for houses in established single-family neighborhoods.
| Neighborhood | Typical value | YoY | 3-month |
|---|---|---|---|
| First Hill | $396,672 | −7.3% | −2.9% |
| Belltown | $470,851 | −6.8% | −4.1% |
| International District | $384,183 | −5.4% | −3.7% |
| South Lake Union | $494,860 | −4.9% | −2.1% |
| Denny Triangle | $670,125 | −3.2% | −2.5% |
| Pioneer Square | $603,946 | −3.0% | −1.6% |
| Neighborhood | Typical value | YoY | 3-month |
|---|---|---|---|
| Phinney Ridge | $1,091,918 | +1.7% | 0.0% |
| Sunset Hill | $1,217,449 | +1.0% | −1.0% |
| Loyal Heights | $960,476 | +0.1% | −0.8% |
| Montlake | $1,409,980 | −1.0% | −1.3% |
| Wallingford | $1,079,281 | −1.0% | −1.3% |
| Madrona | $1,178,872 | −1.6% | −1.7% |
The six condo-dominant neighborhoods above average roughly −5.3% year over year. The six single-family neighborhoods average roughly −0.1%. That is a five-point spread inside one city, in one year, and it is the single most important fact for anyone choosing between the two.
A condo's purchase price is not its cost. HOA dues are a permanent monthly expense that a house does not carry, they tend to rise faster than inflation, and they are outside your control — a special assessment for a building envelope or elevator can arrive without warning.
This is why a condo priced 15% below a comparable house can still be the more expensive asset to hold. Our rental yield analysis shows why it matters in investment terms: dues on a downtown Seattle condo can absorb a quarter to a third of gross rent, which is enough to invert the apparent ranking of the city's highest-yielding ZIP codes.
Against that, condos carry no roof, no foundation, no yard, and no exterior maintenance. The trade is predictable shared costs against unpredictable sole ones. Neither is universally better; they are different risk shapes.
They are behaving as two different markets. Condo-dominant neighborhoods are down 5–7% year over year while single-family neighborhoods are flat to positive. If you want negotiating leverage and can hold through further decline, the condo segment is where it exists. If you need price stability or a short holding period, single-family is currently the steadier asset — but you are not shopping a correction there.
In the dense urban core, yes and meaningfully. First Hill is down 7.3%, Belltown 6.8%, South Lake Union 4.9%, and the International District 5.4% year over year. These are the most condo-dominant areas of the city and they are absorbing the large majority of Seattle's price decline.
The data shows the pattern clearly but does not explain it. Plausible contributors include record metro inventory giving buyers alternatives, rising HOA dues and insurance costs weighing on carrying expense, and softer downtown rents reducing investor demand for units. Treat causal explanations elsewhere with appropriate skepticism, including ours.
Substantially. Dues are a permanent addition to carrying cost that a house does not have, and they generally rise. In yield terms, dues on a downtown Seattle condo can absorb a quarter to a third of gross rent. A condo priced 15% below a comparable house can still cost more to hold.